We transcribed 130 sermons. 973,898 words. Every sentence categorized, every tangent tracked, every political reference counted.
Pastor David Harrell · Calvary Bible Church, Joelton TN · March 2023 – March 2026
Calibrated at 140.2 wpm against two known runtimes. The 45-minute mark is our benchmark for when a sermon starts to feel uncomfortably long.
Before we measure drift numerically, the transcripts reveal it verbally. Pastor Harrell has a signature phrase that functions as an involuntary tangent signal — a verbal tic that tells you he's about to leave the text:
For each sermon we measured on-text markers (references to the stated scripture, "verse," "this passage," "in context") against off-text markers (political terms, cultural commentary phrases). The ratio gives a "drift score" — higher = more off-topic.
Rant + Political = ~253 minutes across 3 years — more than theology teaching, more than application, more than personal illustration. On an average Sunday, roughly 12 minutes are denunciation or political commentary. For every 1 minute of application, 2.5 minutes about what's wrong with the world.
"Love of God," "God's love," "agape," "steadfast love" — ~6 minutes total. Sovereignty is referenced 10× more. Wrath references outpace love 5 to 1. The portrait of God that emerges from 130 sermons is predominantly sovereign, wrathful, and holy — but rarely tender, rarely loving, rarely compassionate.
In the most extreme case, one sermon contains 1 grace term and 50 wrath terms. The overall corpus skews toward condemnation at nearly 60% of all grace-or-wrath language.
Calvary Bible Church positions itself in the Reformed tradition. How much distinctively Reformed theology actually reaches the pews?
The foundational Reformation principle — Scripture Alone as the final authority — receives roughly 3 minutes of explicit attention across 6,947 minutes of preaching. "Sola Scriptura," "Scripture Alone," "sufficiency of Scripture" — 32 total hits. Meanwhile, "Trump" alone appears 82 times. The doctrine that defines Protestant identity is barely whispered from this pulpit.
Here's the deepest tension in the data. Sola Fide — justification by faith alone — is the most-cited Reformed distinctive (~20 min). It means a person's right standing before God depends entirely on faith in Christ, not on works, behavior, or moral performance. And yet the largest non-expository content category is political and cultural denunciation (~253 min combined) — sermons saturated with demands about how people should vote, what ideologies to reject, which cultural positions are acceptable. The implicit message is: your faith is validated by your political alignment. That's not Sola Fide. That's faith plus culture-war orthodoxy. The 228 mentions of "faith alone" are functionally undermined by 1,338 instances of political/cultural gatekeeping.
Is it getting worse? Getting better? Holding steady? Here's what the data shows quarter by quarter:
| Quarter | Sermons | Avg Min | Avg Pol Hits | Avg Rant | Avg Drift % | Solas (total) | Avg Grace | Avg Wrath |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q1 | 4 | 53.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 19.6 | 23 | 10.5 | 7.8 |
| 2023 Q2 | 12 | 52.8 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 22.5 | 45 | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| 2023 Q3 | 12 | 52.9 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 15.4 | 42 | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| 2023 Q4 | 10 | 52.2 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 27.3 | 21 | 5.9 | 13.5 |
| 2024 Q1 | 12 | 51.4 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 25.5 | 43 | 5.3 | 13.9 |
| 2024 Q2 | 11 | 52.3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 16.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 17.0 |
| 2024 Q3 | 10 | 51.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 16.7 | 16 | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 10 | 54.7 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 22.5 | 34 | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| 2025 Q1 | 10 | 54.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 22.9 | 35 | 11.2 | 24.9 |
| 2025 Q2 | 11 | 55.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 15.3 | 46 | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 Q3 | 9 | 55.8 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 17 | 13.2 | 14.9 |
| 2025 Q4 | 10 | 54.1 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 17.8 | 35 | 10.5 | 7.0 |
| 2026 Q1 | 9 | 55.0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 17.6 | 37 | 11.6 | 4.2 |
Israel in prophecy (~125 min) nearly equals all Christology (~134 min). The congregation hears about Israel's future restoration almost as much as the deity, humanity, death, and resurrection of Christ combined.
Great Commission, missions, gospel witness = ~7 minutes in 3 years (0.5%). A church that preaches the Great Commission should probably mention the Great Commission.
"Trump" (82 mentions) outpaces "Love of God" / "God's love" / "agape" / "steadfast love" (72 mentions). A sitting or former president appears in the sermon vocabulary more often than the foundational attribute of God.
The most-cited Reformation doctrine says righteousness comes through faith alone — not works, not political alignment, not cultural orthodoxy. Yet the sermons spend 30× more time on political/cultural denunciation than on explaining what "faith alone" means. The implicit catechism is: you are saved by faith, but your faith is proven by your politics. That's a works-based test wearing a Sola Fide label.
Data: 130 transcripts via Supadata YouTube API. All non-Harrell sermons excluded. March 2023 – March 2026.
Timing: Calibrated at 140.2 wpm from two known runtimes.
Drift Score: Ratio of off-text markers (political terms, "our culture," "in America") to on-text markers (scripture book name, "verse," "this passage," "in context") per sermon.
Classification: Keyword-frequency across 6 content categories and 50+ theological subcategories. Each hit ≈ 12 words of context. Frequency-based proxy, not semantic AI.
Limitations: "Election" in "unconditional election" scores for both theology and politics. "Media" may be non-political. "Grace" in "grace period" scores as theological. Across 973,898 words, patterns are directionally robust but individual numbers are estimates, not precise measurements.
Inspired by: SolaScriptura-ish.com — "They said Scripture Alone. We counted."